中国牛羊肉生产现状及2015~2020年供需预测分析

牛、羊肉是高营养的畜产品，对改善人民生活质量和调整畜牧业生产结构等具有重要意义。试验分析了1999~2012年中国牛羊肉不同生产区的生产现状，并与其他国家在牛羊肉的人均占有量、国际贸易价格等方面进行比较，据此运用 LINEST 函数、LOGEST 函数和一元二次函数预测中国2015~2020年牛羊肉供需趋势。结果表明：农区牛羊肉产量占全国的50%，牛羊肉人均占有量与发达国家、发展中国家之间的差距较大，但均呈稳步增长趋势；相对于发达(澳大利亚、美国、新西兰)和发展中(南非、巴西)国家，牛肉进口价格相对较高，出口价格相对较低，羊肉进口价格相对较低，出口价格后期相对升高；国内牛羊肉价格自2015年初至今急剧下降。并预测未来5年牛羊肉的国内供需缺口将继续增大，且牛肉供需缺口量远高于羊肉缺口量，但羊肉缺口量的年增长率为31%，高于牛肉缺口量的年增长率(8.3%)。

Current status of beef and mutton production in China and the supply and demand forecast in the next five years

Beef and mutton are livestock products with high nutrition,which play important role on impro-ving people livelihood and adjustment of agricultural structure.The paper described the status of beef and mut-ton production from 1 980 to 2012 in China and compared the per-capital beef and mutton yield,import/export price with that of other countries.Using the LINEST,LOGEST and linear duality function,the paper also pre-dicted the supply-demand trend of beef and mutton in the next five years in China.The results showed that beef and mutton production in cropland regions was more than 50% of total production nationwide.There was a gap of per-capital beef and mutton between China and the developed and developing countries,and it was steady in-creased.Comparing to developed countries (Australia,US,New Zealand)and developing countries (Brazil, South Africa),the import price of beef in China was high while the export price was low.For mutton,the im-port price was low,and the export price was increasing in last years.The paper forecasted that the supply-de-mand gap of beef and mutton is extending in the next five years (2015-2020),,and the demand of beef is higher than the mutton,but the annual rate of demand of mutton (31%)is higher than beef (8.3%).