1961-2011年海南岛农业气候资源变化及影响研究

根据海南岛18 个气象站1961—2011 年逐日的气温、降水、日照等观测资料，采用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法全面分析了海南岛农业气候资源和农业气象灾害的变化特征和趋势。结果表明：近50 年来海南岛年平均气温、四季平均气温、≥10℃的活动积温均呈明显的上升趋势（P＜0.05），其气候倾向率分别为0.22℃/10a、0.17℃/10a、0.18℃/10a、0.22℃/10a、0.29℃/10a、173.89℃/10a，其中年平均最低气温和冬季平均气温升高最明显，并在20 世纪80 年代中后期发生突变。年降水量呈微弱的增加趋势，且年内分布极不均匀，主要集中于夏秋两季，年暴雨日数增加趋势明显。年日照时数以57.58 h/10a 的速率呈明显的减少趋势（P＜0.01）并在20 世纪90 年代初期发生突变。登陆海南岛的热带气旋频次减少但强度增强，干旱灾害年际间波动较大，但无明显变化趋势；由于气温升高，寒害和低温冷害的威胁降低。总体上，海南岛农业气候资源向“热量资源更加丰富、水分资源光照资源充足、热带气旋灾害加重”为主要特点的暖湿化方向发展。在此基础上，分析了气候变化对海南热带农业的影响和农业应对气候变化的措施，为充分利用有利的气候资源条件，调整农作物生产布局和种植结构等提供科学依据。

Study on the Changes of Agricultural Climate Resources and Effects on Agriculture in Hainan Island from 1961 to 2011

Based on the meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2011 in Hainan Province, by using linear trend estimation and M- K mutation test, the variation characteristics and trends of agricultural climate resources and agriculture meteorology disasters in Hainan Island were analyzed. The results showed that： in recent 50 years the average annual, seasonal average and ≥ 10℃accumulated temperature all presented a clearly increasing trend（P0.05）,with the tendency ratios of climate were 0.22℃/10 a, 0.17℃/10 a,0.18℃/10 a, 0.22℃/10 a, 0.29℃/10 a, 173.89℃/10 a, respectively, while the increase was most obvious for annual mean minimum and winter average temperature, abrupt changes occurred in the late 1980 s. Annual precipitation, which was unevenly distributed within the year for summer and autumn that contributed more than 70%, presented a weak increasing trend, the number of annual precipitation days reached storm rainfall grade presented a clearly increasing trend. Annual sunshine hours had obviously decreased by 57.58h/10 a and abrupt changed in early late 1990 s. Frequency of tropical cyclones landing in Hainan island was reduced while the destruction enhanced; the drought disaster had an obvious inter-annual fluctuation; due to the rise of temperatures, threat of cold injury and chilling damages reduced. In general, the agricultural climate resources in Hainan Island had warming and drying trend with the more abundant heat resources, more sufficient wate rand light resources, even more serious tropical cyclone disasters. Based on the above analysis, the effects ofc limate change on tropical agriculture and agricultural measures to cope with it were discussed which may provide a scientific basis for making full use of favorable climatic resources and adjusting crop production layout.