区域需水量多维随机模拟方法

需水模拟是水资源规划与管理的重要基础。采用Cholesky因子分解与Box-Cox数据变换及Monte-Carlo随机模拟等技术相结合的方法，建立了考虑月需水量相关性的区域需水量长系列多维随机模拟模型，并将模型应用于汉江中下游地区，结果表明，模拟需水序列的均值、方差等统计参数相对误差小，同时能表达各月需水量之间的相关关系。所建立的模型为需水模拟提供了新思路，具有一定的适用性。

Multi-dimension stochastic simulation method of regional water demand

Water demand simulation is an important basis of regional water resources planning and management. Technologies of Choleskey factoring, Box-Cox data transferring and Monte-Carlo simulation are combined to establish a multi-dimension stochastic simulation model of regional water demand. And this model can realize long time-series simulation and express the correlativity between monthly water demands. The middle-lower reaches of HanJiang River was taken as study object. Results showed that the relative errors of mean value, variance and correlation coefficient of the simulated water demand series had least errors. This study presented a new method of water demand simulation with application value.