Incorporating cannibalism into an age-structured model for the Chilean hake

We incorporated predation equations from the multispecies virtual population analysis model MSVPA into an age-structured model for the Chilean hake (Merluccius gayi gayi) to estimate cannibalism. Two models, model I with constant natural mortality and the MSM, were fitted to the total annual catch, spawning biomass from acoustic surveys and length composition data from fishery and acoustic surveys. Model I fitted the data better than MSM. The majority of the MSM estimates of adult population and spawning biomass were larger than the model I estimates; probably due to the choice of residual mortality M1. High estimates of predation mortality were observed for age-0 hake. In spite of a decreasing fishing mortality, the spawning biomass decreased in the last years. Preliminary MSM results suggest that this might be due to an increase in cannibalism. A sensitivity analysis suggested all response variables were not sensible to the “other food” parameter but sensible to M1 and the predator annual ration. MSM is a promising approach that introduces the predation mortality equations into a statistical framework, allowing the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the parameters and the use of standard statistical tools in a multispecies context. This approach will contribute to provide useful information on the indirect effects of fishing on non-target species to fisheries managers.