基于空间自相关的中国区域经济增长趋同研究

研究了基于空间自相关的中国区域经济增长趋同。结果表明,1978～2004年,中国省域经济增长符合新古典经济学关于趋同的推论,绝对β趋同速度为0.536%。加入东、中、西三大地带虚拟变量后的条件β趋同速度为2.071%,这表明地理位置对省域经济增长趋同有着显著的影响;在对省域经济增长的空间依赖性加以控制之后,1978～2004年间中国省域经济增长存在比较明显的β趋同,其趋同速度为1.664%,这也从另一个方面说明,中国省域经济增长存在比较明显的空间正相关性,即在地理空间上呈现为某种类型的"俱乐部"现象。

Study on Regional Economic Development Convergence in China Based on Spatial Autocorrelation

Provincial economic development in China accorded with the inference of new classical economics about the convergent during 1978~2004. And speed of β convergence was 0.536 %. After joining the fictitious variables of the east, middle and west, the speed of β convergence was 2.071 %, which indicated that geographical position had great influence on provincial economic development convergence. After taking the control of the space dependence of provincial economic development, the provincial economic development showed obvious β convergence during 1978~2004 with a convergence speed of 1.664 %.This also explained that the provincial economic growth in China existed relatively obvious space positive correlation, presenting " club" phenomenon of some category type on geography space.