中央台温度要素预报与实况差异性研究

根据中短期天气预报质量检验办法,对2014年1~12月国家气象中心下发的日最高气温和日最低气温指导预报产品24 h的平均绝对误差、均方根误差和准确率进行检验。结果表明,中央气象台指导预报中日最低气温的预报质量明显高于日最高气温的预报质量,夏、秋季指导预报的参考性好;预报员对气温指导预报的订正范围日最低气温应控制在1.4℃以内,且20:00的订正幅度小于08:00的,日最高气温的订正范围应控制在2.0℃以内;气温预报存在季节性误差,日最低气温的准确率从大到小依次为夏季、秋季、春季、冬季,日最高气温的准确率从大到小依次为秋季、冬季、春季、夏季。订正后的预报质量日最高气温提升明显,在实际预报中可以参考使用。

Temperature Elements Forecast and Live Difference of China Central Television

According to the quality test method of short-and-medium term weather forecast, we test the mean absolute error, root mean square error and accuracy rate from January to December 2014.Results showed that in the instruction forecast of National Meteorological Centre, fore-cast quality of daily minimum temperature was significantly higher than that of daily maximum temperature.Guidance forecast of summer and autumn had good reference value.Correction range of daily lowest temperature should be controlled within 2.0 ℃.Temperature forecast showed seasonal errors.Accuracy rate of daily minimum temperature from big to small was in the order of summer, spring, autumn and winter;the accuracy rate of daily maximum temperature from big to small was in the order of autumn, winter, spring and summer.Forecasting quality of daily maximum temperature after correction significantly improved, which could be used as references in practical forecast.