2014年6月19-20日娄底市强降水天气过程分析

利用ECMWF模式、T639模式、JAPAN模式以及常规气象观测资料，对湖南省娄底市2014年6月19—20日强降水天气过程的环流形势、模式进行对比分析，试图揭示这次强降水天气的成因。结果表明，500 hPa亚欧中高纬为一槽一脊形势，中纬度高空多波动，西安到重庆有低槽东移，影响娄底市西部发生较强降水；850 hPa切变线和低空急流之间对应强降水落区，其维持是造成强降水天气的主要原因；数值模式预报与实况有一些差异，对于19日的强降水落区和强度，主要表现为ECMWF模式和JAPAN模式预报偏小，T639模式预报偏大，对于湘中一线的强降水落区仅T639模式预报准确，但对湘北的预报出现明显空报现象；20日强降水的强度和落区预报， ECMWF模式无论是强度还是落区上都是吻合的，而T639模式和JAPAN模式强度相对也吻合，但落区上有偏差，较实况偏东偏南。

Analysis on a Heavy Rainfall Process in Loudi City during June 19-20 in 2014

By using ECMWF model, T639 model, JAPAN model and conventional meteorological observation data, the circulation situation and modes of a heavy rainfall process during June 19-20 in 2014 in Loudi, Hunan Province were analyzed to reveal the causes.The results showed that there are more fluctuations in middle altitude and a low trough eastward from Xi’an to Chongqing;850hPa shear line and low level jet stream is the main cause of the heavy rainfall process;there are some differences between numerical model prediction and live, as for heavy rainfall falling area and intensity on June 19, ECMWF model and JAPAN model prediction is small, T639 model prediction is too large, fore-cast of falling area in central Hunan is accurate by T639 model; as for heavy rainfall intensity and falling area forecast on June 20, ECMWF mode is consistent with both the intensity and the area.The T639 mode and JAPAN mode, the intensity is relatively consistent, but there is a deviation in the area.