第二次土地调查以来江苏省土地利用结构演变与预测分析

依据2009—2015年江苏省土地变更调查成果,运用土地利用相关指标测算模型,从数量变化和空间变化2个角度找出江苏省第二次土地调查以来土地利用演化的规律,并利用指数平滑法对"十三五"期间江苏省土地利用结构进行预测。结果表明:"二调"以来,江苏省耕地面积不断减少,建设用地面积迅速增加,与耕地面积变化呈负相关;江苏省地级市中,耕地、城镇村及工矿用地相对变化率最高的均为苏州市,其城市扩展规模亟需控制;2016—2020年江苏省耕地面积将呈现波动下降趋势,建设用地面积会继续增长,但耕地减少速度逐渐放缓,城市无序扩张将得到相应控制,建设用地面积增速也将放缓。

Evolution and Forecast Analysis of Land Use Structure since the Second Land Survey in Jiangsu Province

According to land change survey results in Jiangsu Province during 2009-2015,using related index calculation model,the evolution of land use since the second land survey in Jiangsu Province was obtained from quantity and spatial change,index smoothing method was used to forecast “thirteenth five year” land use structure.The results showed that since the second land survey,the cultivated land area of Jiangsu Prov-ince has reduced significantly,but construction land area has grew rapidly and it was negatively correlated with the reduction of arable land;A-mong prefecture-level cities,Suzhou has the greatest relative change rate on arable land and the land of city,urban,village,industrial and mining;during 2016-2020,arable land area will show a downward trend,the construction land area will continue to grow,but the decrease of cultivated land area and the growth of construction land area will gradually slow down.