基于生态足迹的西宁市可持续发展动态分析

基于生态足迹理论,利用《西宁市统计年鉴》等资料研究西宁市近10年各类生物生产性土地生态足迹与生物承载力的动态变化,分析产生生态赤字的原因、万元GDP生态足迹动态变化并有针对性地提出缓解生态赤字的对策。结果表明,研究期内西宁市总的人均生态足迹呈逐年递增趋势,由2001年的0.871 2 hm2·人-1上升至2011年的2.206 1hm2·人-1,增幅达153.2%;人均生态承载力呈相对稳定的波动状态,2001,2005和2011年分别为0.243 2 hm2·人-1、0.232 0 hm2·人-1和0.305 5 hm2·人-1;人均生态赤字以年均20.3%的速度快速增长,由2001年的0.628 0 hm2·人-1增长到2011年的1.900 6 hm2·人-1;化石能源用地生态赤字是西宁市生态赤字扩大的主要原因;西宁市对自然资源的需求已超出了自然生态系统生态承载力的阈值,其发展处于不可持续状态。

Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Development in Xi'ning City Based on Ecological Footprint Method

With the statistical yearbook of Xining City, the dynamics of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of biological productive land of all kinds in the latest ten years were studied using the theory and methods of eeological footprint. The reasons for ecological deficits in Xining City were analyzed, and some strategies against ecological deficits were put forward. The results showed that During the period from 2001 to 2011, per capita ecological footprint rapidly increased with rate of 153.2% , from 0. 8712 in 2001 to 2. 2061 hm2/person in 2011 in Xining City. The per capita ecological carrying capacity was keep a relatively stable fluctuationstate, respectively 0. 2432, 0. 2320 and 0. 3055 hm2/person in 2001, 2005 and 2011. The ecological deficits experienceda rapid increase from 0. 6280 hm2/person in 2001 to 1. 9006 hm2/person in 2011 with an annual rate of 20. 3%. Fossil energy land contributes to the inereasedecological deficit of Xining. Based on the conclusions above, the ecological demand of Xining City has exceeded the threshold of ecological carrying capacityof the naturalsystem. Xining City is in a state of unsustainable development.