基于灰色系统的地下水动态研究

为了深入探求地下水动态变化规律,以陕西洛惠渠灌区实测数据为例,首先采用改进的灰色斜率关联法,对灌区自然-人工-生物条件下地下水动态敏感性因子进行研究,分析了各因子与地下水埋深的关系,并运用灰色动态模型对敏感因子进行灾变预测.结果表明:蒸发量是影响该灌区地下水动态的主要因子,而各因子之间相互作用影响,形成了复杂条件下的耦合关系;灰色动态模型对蒸发量的灾变预测精度较高,完善模型系统.将灰色系统理论应用到灌区地下水动态评价中是切实可行的,是对传统地下水动态研究方法的补充与完善,可为灌区管理和调控提供一定的依据.

The Research of Dynamic of Groundwater on Grey System

In order to deeply seek the variation of groundwater dynamic, the improved grey slope coefficient eorrelation degree analysis method was applied to detailed analyze the sensitive degree about groundwater dynamic under natural-artificial-biological conditions with measured data of Luohuiqu irrigation district in Shanxi, then the relations between various sensitive factors and groundwater depth was analyzed, and grey dynamic model was used to disastrous forecasting. The results showed that the evaporation was the main factor affecting groundwater dynamic in this irrigation district. The interaction and interrelationship amongst various factors formed coupling relationship under the complicated condition. The precision of grey dynamic model was higher. It was feasible and practical that the application of grey system to the appraisal of groundwater dynamic in irrigation district, and it is complement and perfection for the traditional research methods of groundwater dynamic.