基于GM（1，1）模型的我国水产品产量预测

【目的】预测“十二五”时期我国水产品总产量，为渔业产业发展总体规划的制定提供参考。【方法】根据1997~2010年我国水产品产量指标数据，利用GM（1，1）模型对“十二五”期间我国水产品产量进行预测。【结果】按照“生产方式”预测的结果为：在2013年水产品总产量将达6000万t，同年养殖产量在水产品总产量的比重将达到75%；按照“生产水域”预测的结果为：2013年我国淡水产品产量将首次超过海水产品产量，同时在2014年水产品总产量将达到6000万t。按“生产方式”预测的水产品产量略高于按照“生产水域”预测的结果。【建议】“十二五”期间，有关部门应切实加强监测，制定相应的渔业发展规划，协调不同水域下的生产增长水平，实现海淡水生产的全面可持续发展。

Forecast on domestic output of aquatic products based on GM (1,1) model

[Objective]The output of aquatic product during "12th Five-Year Plan" in China was forecasted to offer references for overall planning of fishery industry development. [Method]Total domestic output of aquatic products during "12th Five-Year Plan" period was forecasted by using the output data of them from 1997 to 2010 based on GM(1,1) model. [Result]The prediction result according to "production mode" showed that the total output of aquatic products will reach 60 million tons in 2013, including 75% of aquaculture output this year. According to the "production water", output of freshwater aquatic products will surpass that of seawater aquatic products in 2013, and total aquatic products will hit 60 million tons in 2014. Comparatively speaking, the forecast results of total aquatic products based on "production mode" were higher than those based on "production water". [Suggestion]During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the departments concerned should enhance supervision, formulate corresponding fishery development plan, coordinate the productivity growth in different water to realize overall sustainable development of fishery.