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| 多特征变量洪水频率分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 谢华,康英军,丁夏平. 多特征变量洪水频率分析[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2012, 31(6): 11-14 |
| 作者姓名： | 谢华 康英军 丁夏平 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉,430072 2. 保定市西大洋水库管理处,河北保定,072350 3. 内蒙古河套灌区管理总局,内蒙古巴彦淖尔,015000 |
| 基金项目： | 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目，“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 应用Copula函数构建二变量概率分布模型,研究了洪峰与洪量、洪量与洪水历时的联合概率分布和重现期,得到了各种变量组合下的联合概率和联合重现期。结果表明,基于Copula函数构建的二变量联合概率分布模型不限定变量的边际分布,对各种类型的水文变量都具有较好适应性;洪水的危害不仅在于洪峰、洪量和洪水历时等单一特征属性的量级,当洪水的特征属性共同超过某一量级时,洪水危害最大。利用多变量概率分布模型研究洪峰流量、洪量、洪水历时等特征的联合分布,能够较为全面地描述洪水的风险概率。 |
| 关 键 词： | 洪水 二变量概率分布模型 频率分析 |
Multivariable Frequency Analysis of Flood Based on Copulas |
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| XIE Hua,KANG Ying-jun,DING Xia-ping. Multivariable Frequency Analysis of Flood Based on Copulas[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2012, 31(6): 11-14 | |
| Authors: | XIE Hua KANG Ying-jun DING Xia-ping |
| Affiliation: | 1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China; 2.Baoding Xidayang Reservoir Management,Baoding 072350,China; 3.General Administration of Inner Mongolia Hetao Irrigation District,Bayannur 015000,China) |
| Abstract: | Bivariate probability distribution models were constructed based on Copulas to study the joint probability and return period of various combinations of flood peak and flood volume,flood volume and flood duration.The results showed the Copula models had no limitation to marginal distribution,and they were more suitable for various hydrological frequency than other bivariate probability models.The flood hazards not only relied on the univariate quantity of flood peak,flood volume,and flood duration,but the joint probability of the variables.When the variables exceeded certain quantity jointly,floods would be in higher risk.The Bivariate probability distribution model was used to analyze the joint probability and return period of flood peak,flood volume and flood duration. |
| Keywords: | flood bivariate probability model frequency analysis |
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