气候变化与人类活动对地下水埋深变化的影响

以通辽市科尔沁区为研究区,利用累积距平、M-K突变检验和累积量斜率变化率比较法,对降水量变化与地下水埋深变化进行突变检验,定量评估研究区气候变化与人类活动对地下水埋深变化的贡献度。结果表明:地下水埋深多年来呈显著上升趋势,降水对地下水埋深动态变化的影响存在明显的滞后现象,滞后期为3 a;研究区地下水埋深与降水量突变点为1998年,前期1980—1998年为基准期,后期1999—2016年为影响期;研究区气候变化对地下水埋深变化影响的贡献度为24.5%,人类活动对地下水埋深变化影响的贡献度为75.5%,人类活动是造成地下水埋深下降的主要原因。

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Changes of Groundwater Level

In recent years, there has been a substantial change for groundwater dynamic change in northern of China, and the level of groundwater in many cities overall decline. The West Liao river plain area in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia, is a typical ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, and the major water source of it is groundwater. Therefore, it is significant to study the groundwater dynamic state and its causes for reasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources and ecological environment management. The Horqin District of Tongliao City was selected as the research area. Based on the relationship between dynamic variation of groundwater, precipitation and groundwater exploitation,by using the comparison method of regression analysis, M-K mutation testing, accumulative anomaly method and accumulation slope change rate, the rate of different impact contribution for the vary of groundwater dynamic was quantitatively separated, and the driving factors also were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that there was a significant upward trend for the groundwater depth over the years. Besides, precipitation showed clear hysteresis phenomenon for groundwater dynamic changes, and the delay period was three years. The abrupt change year of groundwater and precipitation in the study area is 1998. The contribution of climate change to the dynamic variation of groundwater in the study area was 24.5%, and the contribution of human activities to the dynamic variation of groundwater was 75.5%. The change of groundwater dynamic state was mainly caused by the human activity. The results of this research would have important practical significance for rational exploitation and utilization of water resources and ecological environment management.