中国奶牛养殖生产布局时空演变分析

本研究基于2001—2017年中国奶牛存栏量统计数据,运用奶牛养殖布局指数、奶牛养殖重心模型和空间自相关模型分析方法,分析中国奶牛养殖生产布局在时间和空间上的演变过程和特征。结果表明:①东北和内蒙古产区奶牛存栏量呈下降趋势,华北产区保持稳定上升,西部产区缓慢上升,南方产区和大城市周边产区呈下降趋势;内蒙古、新疆和黑龙江稳居奶牛养殖主产区的主导地位,但优势逐渐减弱,以河南为代表的新兴产区奶牛养殖发展迅速。②奶牛养殖重心呈现出先向东南方向移动再向西南方向移动的演变趋势。③省际间奶牛存栏量具有全局空间正相关性且相关性不断增强,并已在黑龙江、山西、贵州、广东、海南、云南、广西、河南、陕西、青海、吉林、辽宁和河南出现局部地理集聚现象。最后,提出促进我国奶业发展的相关建议。

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Evolution in Production Distribution of Dairy Cow Farming in China

Based on the statistical data of Chinese dairy cow stock from 2001 to 2017, this paper analyzed temporal and spatial evolution process and characteristics in production distribution of Chinese dairy cow farming by applying production distribution index, center of gravity model and spatial autocorrelation model. The result shows that: 1)The stock of dairy cow in the northeastern and Inner Mongolia producing areas showed a downward trend, the North China producing areas maintained a steady rise, the western producing areas increased slowly, the southern producing areas and the surrounding areas of large cities showed a downward trend; Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Heilongjiang stabilized the dominant position of dairy cow farming, but the advantages gradually weakened, and the dairy cow farming in the emerging production areas represented by Henan has developed rapidly. 2)The center of gravity of dairy cow farming showed an evolutionary trend of moving to the southeast and then moving to the southwest. 3)The inter-provincial dairy cow stocks had a positive correlation with global space and their correlation had been continuously enhanced. There appeared partial geographic agglomeration phenomena in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Jilin, Liaoning and Henan.