Using a GLMM to estimate the somatic growth rate trend for male South African west coast rock lobster, Jasus lalandii

A decrease in somatic growth rate, and hence productivity, of the South African west coast rock lobster population which occurred in the late 1980s has had important ramifications for subsequent TACs set for this resource. These are critically dependent on monitoring growth rates and determining whether an increase back towards earlier higher levels is underway. The available data are not well balanced by season and location, and a GLMM approach is used to take account of season–location interactions by treating these as random effects. This results in much less precise estimates of annual somatic growth rate than had been suggested by an earlier fixed effects GLM approach, and has necessitated a change in the philosophy underlying management of the resource.