| 基于信息扩散理论的云南农业旱灾风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 余航,王龙,田琳,张茂堂,杨蕊.基于信息扩散理论的云南农业旱灾风险评估[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 余航 王龙 田琳 张茂堂 杨蕊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院,昆明,650201
2. 云南省水利水电科学研究院,昆明,650228 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业专项云南旱灾应急响应系统研究(201001044) |
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| 摘 要： | 选取云南省1950--2009年体现农业旱灾损失的旱灾受灾面积，旱灾成灾面积，旱灾粮食损失3类指标数据，应用信息扩散理论推求3类指标联合超越概率，采用投影寻踪法得到3类指标的综合损失指数，继而得到综合损失指数的超越概率，最后分析云南省干旱的历史重现概率。结果表明：每10a一遇的旱灾综合损失指数达到0．59；云南近10a旱灾损失巨大，特别是2005年发生了一次136．5年一遇的特大干旱；60年来，云南发生特大干旱为大于8．4a一遇。
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| 关 键 词： | 云南 旱灾损失 信息扩散 投影寻踪 |
An Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk inYunnan Based on the Information Diffusion Theory |
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| YU Hang,WANG Long,TIAN Lin,ZHANG Mao-tang,YANG Rui.An Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk inYunnan Based on the Information Diffusion Theory[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(12). |
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| Authors: | YU Hang WANG Long TIAN Lin ZHANG Mao-tang YANG Rui |
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| Institution: | YU Hang1,WANG Long1,TIAN Lin1,ZHANG Mao-tang2,YANG Rui1(1.Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China,2.Yunnan Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Kunming 650228,China) |
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| Abstract: | Selected were 3 kinds of indexed data of drought economic loss which include the drought disaster area,the grain loss caused by the drought and the other affected areas in Yunnan Province between 1950 and 2009.The Projection Pursuit Method is used to get the damage results of the three indexes and also the index of the probability of comprehensive damage.In the end,the probability of historical drought in Yunnan is analyzed and the results show that index of comprehensive drought damage of every ten years w... |
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| Keywords: | Yunnan drought loss information diffusion projection pursuit |
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