滇中地区森林火险等级预报方法的研究

经引起滇中地区森林火灾的主要细小可燃物的含水率及初始蔓延速度的大量试验数据为基础，结合大量林火历史资料，气象历史资料统计分析，找出规律，在对森林火险等级进行实测的基础上，建立数学模型和预报方法。经验证及对预报效果分析证明，本预报方法符合客观实际，是一种符合科学规律、简易、实用的预报方法，同时对引起滇中地区特大森林火灾的大气环流形势及物理量的变化作了分析，掌握了有关规律，为该地区的特大森林火险预报提

FORECAST METHOD OF FOREST FIRE DANGER GRADE IN THE CENTRAL AREA OF YUNNAN

This article mainly deals with the method of forest fire forecast in accordance with the establishment of the mathematical model. The mathematical model is established on basis of the study on the regularity of forest fire and fire danger grade determination after making both the study of the moisture content of combustible substances, the major cause of forest fire in the central area of Yunnan, and the analysis of not only the data obtained from many experiments on early spreading speed of forest fire, but also the historical data of forest fires and meteorological informations. After testing and analyzing this method in contrast with the way of fire forecast according to histoncal data, the result shows that this forecast method is an objective and scientific one with the characteristics of locality, practicality, and simplicity.Based on the above, this article also refers to the analysis of the atmospheric circulation and its physical quantity variation which is the cause of catastrophic forest fire in the central area of Yunnan. Thus the regularity of forest fire is figured out for forecasting catastrophic fires in this area.