中国北方春玉米干旱灾害风险评估

开展农业干旱灾害风险评估是实施干旱灾害风险管理、减轻旱灾损失和影响的必要途径,如何揭示成险因子变化及其相互作用是开展风险评估的关键。本文以中国北方春玉米为研究对象,利用我国北方各地春玉米产量和气象数据,以及地形、土地利用和土壤有效灌溉面积等数据,基于自然灾害风险评估原理,构建北方春玉米干旱灾害危险性指数,在地理信息系统(GIS)平台下结合春玉米种植的暴露度和其他影响抗灾能力因子对中国北方春玉米干旱灾害进行风险评估区划。结果表明,春玉米干旱较高或高风险地区主要位于内蒙古中部、宁夏、甘肃、辽宁西部和新疆部分地区,风险指标值在0.73以上;春玉米干旱较低或低风险地区主要位于黑龙江西南部、吉林中部、辽宁北部、河北南部和陕西中部等地区,风险指标值在0.72以下。该研究有助于深化认识风险评估中成险因子相互作用,研究结果对指导北方春玉米干旱灾害风险管理具有科学意义。

Risk assessment of spring maize drought disaster in Northern China

Drought risk assessment is the necessary way to implement drought risk management and reduce the losses and impacts of drought disaster. Moreover, the key problem of drought risk assessment is how to reveal the characteristics of risk factors and their interactions among each other. This article assessed and zoned drought risk for spring maize cultivated in the Northern China, using the data of yield of spring maize, meteorological data, terrain data, land use data and other relevant data. Based on natural disaster risk theory, the assessing indices and models of drought risk were established. According to the exposure degree of hazard-bearing bodies and capability of disaster prevention, the regional division of drought hazard risk was conducted based on GIS. The results showed that the areas with high and sub-high drought risk included central Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, western of Liaoning and part of Xinjiang, with the value of above 0.73. The lower risk area was distributed in the southwestern of Heilongjiang, central Jilin, northern of Liaoning, south of Hebei and central Shanxi, with the value of below 0.72. This study is helpful to recognize the relationships among the factors of risk and provide science gist to develop risk management of drought disaster of spring maize in Northern China.