Long-term growth analyses of Japanese cedar trees in a plantation: neighborhood competition and persistence of initial growth deviations

The individual growth of tree diameter at breast height (dbh) is analyzed in an even-aged plantation of Cryptomeria japonica from stand age of 45 to 94 years, to examine how the growth of individual trees has been affected by the changes in spacing resulting from thinning operations. At any age, a significant proportion (0.37–0.46) of the variation in dbh growth during a 5–11-year period was explained by dbh at the beginning of the period, probably due to greater leaf mass of larger trees. Next, either one-sided or two-sided competition was added to the model, by calculating the basal area (BA) of neighboring trees around each tree within a given radius or BA for trees having larger dbh than the focal tree within the radius. After preliminary analyses, a radius of 8 m was selected as the critical range for tree competition. Although both types of competition explained a significant proportion (0.09–0.43) of growth variation, one-sided competition was not significant at ages greater than 54 years. Based on the model at 45 years of age, the initial deviation of growth rate for each tree from the predicted rate was calculated and added to the models as a third variable. This raised the coefficient of determination up to 0.50–0.74. These findings have practical significance for forest plantation management, particularly for controlling the growth of standing trees via thinning, to produce high-quality timber in the future.