Probabilities of Low Nighttime Temperatures during Stocking and Harvest Seasons for Inland Shrimp Culture

Litopenaeus vannamei is cultured in earthen ponds at southern US inland sites when water temperatures permit shrimp survival and growth. The probability of a minimum air temperature ≤14 C for one, three, or five consecutive days at one coastal and eight inland sites where L. vannamei is or could be grown in ponds is high (50%) from late March through late April at all sites except Arcadia, Florida, and Harlingen, Texas. Probabilities are 10% by early May to early June. In the autumn, the 10 and 50% probability levels are reached in early‐ to mid‐September and by late September to mid‐October, respectively. Arcadia, Florida, and Harlingen, Texas, have the longest periods with low probabilities and Pecos, Texas, has the shortest periods. The maximum pond water temperature from the previous afternoon and the minimum air temperature from that night predicted the minimum pond water temperature the following morning for Pine Bluff, Arkansas: (R² = 0.886): T_min = 1.464 + 0.169A_min + 0.727T_max, where T_min = minimum daily pond water temperature (C), A_min = minimum air temperature (C) for the same day, and T_max = maximum pond water temperature (C) from the previous day. Pond stock out and harvest decisions can be guided by minimum air temperature probabilities and predicted water temperature.