2010年湖南省斜纹夜蛾发生趋势的预测——以郴州地区为例

目的]预测2010年郴州地区斜纹夜蛾的发生趋势。方法]以湖南省郴州、宁远等县连续多年的田间调查资料为基础数据,结合当地气象数据,预测了2010年郴州地区斜纹夜蛾的发生规律。结果]以郴州地区为例,2010年4～6月斜纹夜蛾发生量仅低于2002和2003年,而高于历史其他年份,说明2010年将属斜纹夜蛾中等偏重发生年。利用1月气温预测4～6月的斜纹夜蛾发生量,相关系数显著,达90%的可信度;利用2、3月性诱蛾量预测4～6月斜纹夜蛾发生量,两者的相关性很高,达98%的可信度;利用2～4月小地老虎性诱蛾量预测4～6月斜纹夜蛾性诱蛾量,二者相关系数达90%的可信度。结论]为斜纹夜蛾的综合防治提供了参考。

Prediction of Occurrence Trend of Spodoptera litura in Hunan Province in 2010

Objective] The paper was to predict the occurrence trend of Spodoptera litura in Chenzhou area in 2010.Method] With filed survey data for continuous years in Chenzhou and Ningyuan in Hunan Province as basic data,combining with local meteorological data,the occurrence law of S.litura in Chenzhou area in 2010 was predicted in the paper.Result] With Chenzhou as an example,the occurrence quantity of S.litura during April and June in 2010 was only second to 2002 and 2003,which was higher than other years,indicating that 2010 would be the year with moderate and slightly heavier occurrence of S.litura.The occurrence quantity of S.litura during April and June was predicted using temperature in January,and the correlation coefficient was significant,reaching the reliability degree of 90%.The occurrence quantity of S.litura during April and June was predicted by using sexually trapped moth during February and March,the correlation between them was very high,reaching the reliability degree of 98%.The sexually trapped moth of S.litura during April and June was predicted using sexually trapped moth by Agrotis ypsilon during February and April,and the correlation coefficient between them reached the reliability degree of 90%.Conclusion] The study provided reference for integrated control of S.litura.