云南旱灾综合指数时间序列趋势分析

选取云南省1950～2009年体现旱灾经济损失的旱灾受灾面积、旱灾成灾面积、旱灾粮食损失3类指标数据,计算旱灾综合指数,构成云南旱灾综合指数序列,对其进行分级评估,并采用Mann-Kendall法分析云南省1950～2009年旱灾综合指数时间序列的变化趋势。结果表明:60年来云南干旱灾害频发,旱灾损失严重,平均2.5年出现一次重大以上的旱灾;1950～2009年云南旱灾综合指数呈显著上升趋势,特别是1986年以来旱灾损失明显上升,防灾、减灾形势严峻。

Analysis on Trend of Time Series of Drought Composite Index in Yunnan

3 indexes data of economic losses of drought that include the area of drought disaster,the affection area of the drought,the grain loss due to the drought in Yunnan Province during 1950-2009 were selected,the composite index of drought was calculated,thus constituted composite index sequence of drought in Yunnan Province,and used composite index to assess the degree,then used Mann-Kendall to analyze composite index time series trend of drought in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2009.The results show that: during the recent 60 years,drought disasters usually happened,the loss due to drought was serious,the average 2.5 years would appear a major or above drought in Yunnan Province.From 1950 to 2009,composite index of drought was obviously rising,especially since the middle of 1980s,the damage of drought increased obviously,drought prevention and reduction were very grim in Yunnan Province.