1978-2014年新疆农作物受极端气候事件影响的灾情变化趋势分析

基于衢州地区5个气象站1973—2013年逐月气象要素,采用线性趋势倾向估计、相关分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、多元回归分析等方法,分析了蒸发量的变化特征及影响因素。结果表明：衢州地区中东部年及四季蒸发量呈显著上升趋势,特别是近10年蒸发增多趋势明显,西部年及夏、冬季蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,年蒸发下降速率小于中东部上升速率。衢州地区夏季蒸发最大,冬季最小,蒸发量月际变化呈单峰型,最大月为7月,衢州地区中东部年及四季蒸发量均发生突变,而西部只在年、春、夏、冬季发生突变。年蒸发量与相对湿度、水汽压、降水量呈负相关,与平均最高气温、温度日较差呈正相关。相对湿度、水汽压减少,气温上升,温度日较差增大是衢州地区中东部蒸发量上升的主要因素。

Disaster Trend of Crops Affected by Extreme Climatic Events in Xinjiang During 1978-2014

This paper analyzed the variation characteristics and the impact factors of evaporation in Quzhou, based on the monthly meteorological elements at 5 meteorological stations during 1973 to 2013, and various methods were used for analysis, including linear trend trendency estimation, correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that: the annual and seasonal evaporation were shown significant ascending trend in the east and middle Quzhou, especially in the recent decade; the annual, summer and winter evaporation were shown significant declining trend in the west Quzhou; the declining rate for annual evaporation in west region was smaller than the ascending rate in east and middle region; the seasonal evaporation was the highest in summer and lowest in winter; the monthly evaporation was shown a single peak variation, and peak value was in July; the mutation for the annual and seasonal evaporation occurred in the east and middle Quzhou, while the mutation for the annual, spring, summer and winter evaporation occurred in the west region; the annual amount of evaporation had a negative relationship with the relative humidity, vapour pressure and the precipitation, while it had a positive relationship with the mean maximum air temperature, diurnal air temperature range. The main factor accounted for the ascending of the evaporation in the east and middle Quzhou, was the reduction of relative humidity and the vapour pressure, the ascent of the mean air temperature and the increase of diurnal air temperature range.