基于主成分-聚类分析法的管道风险评价方法

为了更准确地开展油气管道风险评价，在论述主成分分析和聚类分析法基本原理的基础上，建立了基于主成分一聚类分析法的油气管道风险评价模型，并将此模型应用于我国某输气管道的风险评价。按照建立的风险评价流程，通过数值标准化和统计分析，降低了管道风险指标间的相关性和赋权主观性，提取了管道风险指标的3个主成分因子，然后结合指标间的相关性，最终给出了不同管段的风险分类和排序。基于主成分一聚类分析法的管道风险评价方法能够有效提高油气管道风险评价体系的可靠性和实用性，对于指导油气管道运营维护具有实际意义。（图2，表6，参6）

Pipeline risk assessment method based on principle component-clustering analysis

In order to make risk assessment on oil/gas pipeline more accurately, on the basis of principle component analysis and clustering analysis, the paper establishes risk assessment model of oil/gas pipeline based on principle component- clustering analysis, and uses this model on the risk assessment of a inland gas pipeline. According to the established risk assessment process, by using numerical standardization and statistical analysis, the correlation and weight subjectivity between pipeline risk indexes are lowered, 3 principle component factors of pipeline risk indexes are proposed, then according to the correlation between indexes, risk classification and sequence of different pipe sections are given. The pipeline risk assessment method based on principle component-clustering analysis can improve the reliability and practicality of oil/gas pipeline risk assessment system, and has practical significance for the operation and maintenance of oil/gas pipeline. （2 Figures, 6 Tables, 6 References）