| 应用ARMA模型超长期预测棉铃虫发生程度 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄荣华 汤建国. 应用ARMA模型超长期预测棉铃虫发生程度[J]. 江西农业学报, 1997, 9(1): 40-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄荣华 汤建国 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]江西省农业科学院植物保护研究所 [2]江西省彭泽县植物保护站 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据赣北棉区１９５０～１９９１年棉铃虫发生程度的历史资料，应用时间序列分析方法，建立了自回归滑动平均（ＡＲＭＡ）预测模型。Ｗｔ＝－０．３６５５Ｗｔ－１＋０．２９２６Ｗｔ－２＋０．０３４１Ｗｔ－３＋εｔ＋０．８２０３εｔ－１＋０．３２６７εｔ－２＋０．３１４５εｔ－３该模型１９５３～１９９１年的历史符合率为８７．１８％，１９９２～１９９６年的预报准确率达１００％。根据所建模型对１９９７年和１９９８年赣北棉铃虫的发生程度进行了超长期预测
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| 关 键 词： | ARMA模型；棉铃虫；发生程度；超长期预测 |
Superlong-Term Prediction of the Occurrence Level of Helicoverpa armigera by ARMA model |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the data of historical occurrence of Helicovrepa armigera in the cotton-growing area of northern Jiangxi during 1950-1991, the following autoregressive moving average (ARMA) forecast model was established by the time series analysis method: W t=-0.3655W t-1 +0.2926W t-2 +0.0341W t-3 +ε t+0.8203ε t-1 +0.3267ε t-2 +0.3145ε t-3 Its historical coincidence rate in the period from 1953 to 1991 was 87.18%, and the forecast accuracy in the period from 1992 to 1996 reached 100%. According to the established model, the occurrence level of Helicoverpa armigera in 1997 and 1998 in northern Jiangxi was forcast. |
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| Keywords: | ARAM model Helicoverpa armigera Occurrence level Superlong-term prediction |
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