淮海经济区生态足迹时空差异与城市可持续性评价

基于生态足迹模型研究了淮海经济区1986—2008年生态足迹(EFs)的年际变化及其空间差异,并对20个成员市的生态可持续性进行了评价。研究表明,区域人均生态足迹呈现快速增长趋势,年均增幅达5.74%。2008年,处在前4位的依次为莱芜市(9.143 6hm2),枣庄市(6.340 4hm2),淮北市(6.185 2hm2),济宁市(5.004 9hm2);后4位的分别是阜阳市(1.038 5hm2),周口市(1.122 1hm2),宿迁市(1.209 7hm2),开封市(1.319 5hm2)。各成员市之间存在明显差异,最高者与最低者相差近8倍,其中能源用地是导致生态足迹空间差异的最主要因子。经济区人均生态承载力(ECs)表现为稳中有降,但各成员市之间空间差异程度不大,基本在0.4～0.7hm2之间变化。由此,淮海经济区生态供需状况由1986—1988年的较小盈余,1989年以后逐年出现生态赤字,到2008年人均赤字(EDS)达1.692 1hm2,年均增长29.08%,显然现有生态承载力已不足以支持其生态足迹需求,很大程度上需依靠消耗自然资本存量来弥补生态赤字差额,这种发展模式对自身生态经济系统安全构成了潜在威胁。根据生态可持续评价结果,各成员市的生态可持续指数(IES)普遍偏低,半数以上的城市处在"中度不可持续类"发展状态。其中,莱芜、枣庄、淮北、济宁、泰安、徐州、日照等7市已进入"强不可持续类"城市。最后,从区域科学发展的角度,提出了增强区域可持续发展能力的对策和建议。

Spatio-temporal Variability of Ecological Footprints and Sustainability Assessment on Cities of Huaihai Economic Zone

Based on ecological footprint(EF) model,EF distributions over time and space were determined in Huaihai Economic Zone from 1986 to 2008,and the eco-system sustainability was assessed on the twenty city members of the Zone.The study shows that regional EF per capital had increased rapidly by 5.74% per year.In 2008,the four highest EFs was observed respectively on cities of Laiwu(9.143 6 hm²),Zaozhuang(6.340 4 hm²),Huaibei(6.185 2 hm²),and Jining(5.004 9 hm²),and the four lowest EFs respectively on Fuyang(1.038 5 hm²),Zhoukou(1.122 1 hm²),Suqian(1.209 7 hm²),and Kaifeng(1.319 5 hm²).For all cities,the largest EF was as approximately nine times as that of the smallest.Among the six types of land,energy land was the most important factor that contributed to EF differences.Total ecological capacity(EC) per capital decreased slightly,and ECs of all cities ranged between 0.4~0.7 hm².Ecological surplus was found in 1986,1987 and 1988.After 1989,ecological deficits(EDs) become increasingly larger as 1.692 1 hm² in 2008,with an annual increasing rate of 29.08%.Therefore,the EFs had been over demanded substantially by the ECs,which were continuously consuming the natural capital stocks to compensate EDs,threatening ecological security of the economic system.According to ecological sustainability index(I^ES),more than half of the cities had I^ES lower than the critical value for the state of "moderately non-sustainable",within which cities of Laiwu,Zaozhuang,Huaibei,Jining,Taian,Xuzhou and Rizhao were classified as "strongly non-sustainable cities".Finally,at a perspective of regional scientific development,countermeasures and suggestions have been addressed to promote sustainable development in all cities of Huaihai Economic zone.