黑河流域干旱化驱动力机制及其趋势预测

干旱与水资源短缺是黑河流域的基本环境特征。候变暖的背景下,该地区的降水量虽然有所增加,但是远远不能抵消气温升高带来的蒸发量。在气候干旱化增强的背景下,黑河流域的径流量在上游呈现增加的趋势,由于中上游对水资源的开发利用,使得黑河流域越往下游,径流量减少越明显,下游的水文干旱进一步加剧。受气候干旱、水文干旱、人为干旱的影响,近50a干旱灾害面积急剧扩张,选取1957—2004年的张掖市旱灾面积统计资料,采用马儿可夫预测方法,预测了2005—2010年的旱灾面积的状态概率,并提出一些对策。

Driving Force of Drought and the Trend Predication in Heihe River Basin

Drought and shortage of water resource are the basic environmental problems in Heihe River basin. Probably due to climate changes that are related to global warming, the precipitation in this region has become somewhat increasing, but it is far to neutralize the evaporation caused by high temperature. When drought is the most serious,the runoff in upstream of Heihe River basin has been increasing. Due to the utilization of water resource by upstream and midstream. The runoff decreases much more, resulting in hydrologic drought is even more worse in downstream. By the effect of climatic drought, hydrological drought and human active drought, the agricultural are- as affected by drought have expanded in the last 50 years. In this paper, choosing the statistical documents about drought disaster areas from 1957 to 2004, using Markofv method, the probability of drought disaster area is predicted and some countermeasures are provided.