基于系统平衡的四川省耕地面积预测研究

耕地保护事关一个地区粮食战略安全问题,而耕地面积的测算与预测为耕地保护提供了决策支撑。本文以2004年为基期年,在综合分析四川省人口、粮食单产、复种指数、农业结构调整、建设占用耕地等因素的基础上,以区域耕地需求预测模型和灰色系统预测模型分别探讨2005～2020年间耕地需求量与耕地有效供给量。结果表明2005～2010年耕地有效供给量都高于低粮食自给率下的耕地需求面积,但基本都低于高粮食自给率下的耕地需求面积,至2020年四川省预测耕地有效供给量分别低于低粮食自给率和高粮食自给率下耕地需求面积56.21×104hm2和83.41×104hm2。

A Predicative Study Cultivated Land Area in Sichuan Province Based on System Balance

Cultivated land protection is one important portion of area stratagey security.The surveys and prediction of cultivated land area provide an effective way for cultivated land protection.This paper takes 2004 as the base year,on the basis of comprehensive analysis of some factors,such as population.Unit area grain yield,index of multiple plantation,the adjustment of agricultural structure,the farmland demand in construction and so on,discusses the cultivated land demand quantity and effective supply of cultivated land between 2005～2020 by demand model of regional cultivated land area and grey system forecast model.The prediction shows that the effective supply of cultivated land between 2005～2020 is higher than the demand quantity area of low grain self-sufficient rate,but basically is lower than the demand quantity area of high grain self-sufficient rate,and the effective supply of cultivated land is lower respectively than the low and the high grain degree of self-sufficiency rate demand area 56.21×104 hm2 and 83.41×104 hm2 until 2020.