新疆叶尔羌河源流区气候暖湿化与径流的响应研究

应用卡群水文站和塔什库尔干气象站1961-2006年的观测资料,分析了叶尔羌河流域源区气温和降水的变化特征以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近46 a来叶尔羌河源区气温总体呈上升趋势,而降水量呈增加的趋势;对气温与降水序列进行统计检验,得出该地区气温增加的趋势显著,降水增加的趋势不显著,气温的增加趋势大于降水。气温是叶尔羌河源区径流量变化的主要影响因素,夏季平均气温与年径流量的相关系数最大,为0.81。与新疆地区其他河流不同的是,7-8月降水量与年径流量呈负相关的关系,相关系数为-0.57;在降水量不变的情况下,径流量随气温升高而增加;在气温不变的情况下,径流量随降水量的增加而减少。

Climate Change Towards Warming-Wetting Trend and Its Effects on Runoff at the Headwater Region of the Yarkant River in Xinjiang

Based on the data observed in Kaqun Hydrological Station and Tashikuergan Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2006,the characteristics of climate change and the response of runoff to climate change at headwater of the Yarkant River were analyzed.It was found that the mean annua1 temperature was rising,and annual precipitation was increasing.After verifying the series of precipitation and temperature,the variation of precipitation and temperature are increasing,only the temperature changed more obviously than the precipitation.Temperature were the main factors which resulted in runoff changing.The correlation coefficient of temperature and runoff was the largest,being 0.81.The correlation coefficient between annual precipitation and runoff was-0.57.When precipitation was in the same circumstances,the runoff increased with temperature rising;when temperature was in the same circumstances,the runoff is decreased with precipitation increasing.