杉木种子园种子产量预测

本文利用IBM-PC型计算机,采用数理统计上的逐步回归方法,对余杭县长乐林场杉木种子园数年种子产量数据及当地气象资料进行分析处理,在两者之间建立起回归关系,得到该种子园种子产量预测的数学模型。利用该模型进行历史拟合检验,拟合率为78.8％,同时预测该种子园1989年杉木种子产量为丰年。

Prediction of Chinese Fir Seed Output

Stepwise regression method was used with the help of computer and the data of seed output of Chinese Fir from the seed orchard of Changle Forest Farm and of the climatic factors from the local weather station were analysed. The relation between weather factors and seed output has been established and the mathematical model for predicting seed output of the orchard is abtained in this paper. With this model, the matching rate for output of the past years is 78.8% and the predictable output of the orchard for 1989 is harvest.