东北春玉米全生育期气候适宜度评价

适宜的气候要素是保障东北春玉米健康生长和高产稳产的基本条件。依据温、光、水气候要素对春玉米生长的影响，分别构建温度、日照和降水适宜度模型，引入有效降水提高模型精度，再基于有效降水和实际降水将三种气候要素耦合建立综合气候适宜度模型Ⅰ和模型Ⅱ,并利用1994—2013年有效气象、物候数据和2003—2010年像元尺度大田玉米生长状况时序遥感监测信息对海伦和泰来两个典型东北农业台站进行模型测试检验，将最适用模型应用于东北三省玉米典型种植区以估算2008与2009年25个站点不同生育期各气候要素适宜度。检验结果表明，“基于有效降水的模型Ⅰ”所估算的全生育期综合气候适宜度与NDVI、EVI的相关系数(0.58、0.29)均优于“基于实际降水的模型Ⅱ”(0.52、0.18),融合有效降水信息的模型Ⅰ更能有效捕获气候要素对春玉米生长胁迫现象。应用结果显示，模型Ⅰ估算的2008和2009年东北春玉米全生育期综合气候适宜度分别为0.67和0.56,与该地区2008年春玉米实际产量高于2009年表现一致；两年间东北三省春玉米各气候要素适宜度总体表现为温度>日照>有效降水；辽宁与吉林的温度、有效...

Evaluation of climate suitability of spring maize during the whole growth period in Northeast China

Suitable climatic elements are essential to ensure healthy growth and high and stable yields of spring maize in Northeast China. Based on the influence of temperature, insolation, and precipitation on the growth of spring maize, we constructed the suitability models of temperature, insolation, and precipitation separately. The effective precipitation was introduced to improve the accuracy of the model, and then coupled with temperature and insolation to establish the synthetic climate suitability model I and model II. Then we adopt the available meteorological and phonological data from 1994 to 2013 and the time-series remote sensing monitoring information of the pixel-scale field maize growth from 2003 to 2010 to validate the models through the Hailun and Tailai typical agricultural stations in Northeast China. The most suitable model was applied to estimate the suitability of various climatic elements in different growth periods at 25 stations in 2008 and 2009 in the typical maize planting areas of Northeast China. The results showed that the correlation coefficients (0.58, 0.29) of the synthetic climate suitability of the whole growth period estimated by the model I and NDVI and EVI were better than the model II (0.52, 0.18), revealing that the model I of integrating effective precipitation more effectively captured the stress phenomenon of climatic factors on spring maize growth. Our application results showed that the synthetic climate suitability of the whole growth period in 2008 and 2009 were 0.67 and 0.56, respectively, which was consistent with the actual yield of spring maize in 2008, which was higher than that in 2009. The climate suitability of spring maize in Northeast China was temperature > insolation > effective precipitation during the two years. The temperature and effective precipitation suitability of in Liaoning and Jilin Provinces were mostly in the range of 0.84~0.95 and 0.60~0.80, respectively, which were higher than those in Heilongjiang Province (0.77~0.93 and 0.60~0.65). While insolation suitability was in 0.60~0.80, which was lower than that in Heilongjiang Province (0.80~0.85). In addition, the temperature suitability of the three provinces fluctuated slightly, while the insolation and effective precipitation suitability changed significantly, and the variation was concentrated in -0.40~0.40, which coincided with the increase of drought disasters of the Northeast China in 2009. The climate suitability model has the ability to assist in capturing agroclimatic disaster phenomena and can provide effective information for agricultural production management.