Temperature control of the distributional range of five C3 grass species in the uKhahlamba-Drakensberg Park,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Global climate change is expected to influence the distribution of global biodiversity. C₄ and C₃ perennial grasses co-occur in the fire-prone KwaZulu-Natal uKhahlamba-Drakensberg grasslands, with C₃ grass species occurring at cooler locations in the mountain range and C₄ grass species at warmer locations. If a warming climate is expected to cause a contraction in the ranges of C₃ grasses, evidence of temperature controlling current distributions is required. This study modelled the distribution of five C₃ grass species, namely Tenaxia stricta, Tenaxia disticha, Festuca costata, Merxmuellera drakensbergensis and Merxmuellera stereophylla, to temperature-related surrogate variables using presence–absence data collected across the environmental heterogeneity of the mountain range. Distributions of each species, and of all species combined, were modelled using generalised additive models. These temperature-related variables accounted for the distribution of all five species, least so for F. costata. Four species could therefore contract in range in response to climate change, whereas F. costata is least likely to have a range contraction directly related to a warming climate and could experience a range expansion owing to the fertilising effect of increased [CO₂].