贵州山区土地利用变化多尺度空间自相关分析

该文以贵州省贵阳市花溪区1986年,1995年和2000年3个时段的土地利用变化数据为基础,运用地理信息系统技术,首先研究了0.2km×0.2km、0.4km×0.4km和0.6km×0.6km3个尺度土地利用变化的空间自相关性,分别建立不同尺度的经典线性回归模型和空间滞后模型,并对比2种模型的精度。结果表明,1986年、1995年和2000年花溪区的耕地、林地、草地、建设用地和水域在3个尺度都表现出较强的空间正相关性,空间相关性与研究尺度有关,随研究尺度变大空间自相关性逐渐下降。通过对比分析3个尺度空间滞后模型和经典线性回归模型,发现空间滞后模型的残差较小,解释能力比经典线性回归模型强,空间滞后模型的预测精度优于经典线性回归模型。该文研究可为喀斯特地区土地利用管理提供依据。

Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land use change at mountainous areas in Guizhou province

Based on remote sensing data of land use in 1986, 1995 and 2000 years on Huaxi district at Guiyang city in Guizhou province, spatial autocorrelation of land use changes at scales of 0.2 km×0.2 km, 0.4 km×0.4 km and 0.6 km×0.6 km were studied using GIS technology. Then, space lag model and classical linear regression model at three scales were established. The results showed that cultivate land, forest land, grassland, construction land and water area in Huaxi distrct at three scales in 1986, 1995, and 2000 years had strong positive spatial autocorrelation, the degree of spatial correlation had some connection with the scale, and spatial autocorrelation generally decreased when the study scale became larger. Compared with the classical linear regression model at three scales, the residual of space lag model at three scales was smaller , and better in explain ability and forecast accuracy. The study provides a foundation for land use management for Karst region.