马铃薯木虱在中国的潜在地理分布及其入侵风险评估

马铃薯木虱是原产于北美的重要害虫,近年研究表明该虫能传播马铃薯毁灭性病害———马铃薯斑纹片病其病原菌为(Candidatus Liberibacter solancearum,简称Lso),因而受到更多国家和地区的特别关注。迄今为止,该虫及其所传病害在我国尚未有分布,均是我国关注的具有重要检疫意义的有害生物。2017年,我国广州、上海口岸首次从进境货物中截获Lso。目前,我国口岸尚未截获马铃薯木虱,但是鉴于其本身和所传带病害的重大危害性,有必要明确马铃薯木虱在我国的潜在地理分布和传入风险。本文采用生物学动态仿真模型结合地理信息系统的方法,分析其在我国的适生范围和适生程度,同时对该虫传入我国的风险进行定量评估,确定其入侵风险等级,为有害生物检疫和国门把关决策提供科学依据。研究结果表明马铃薯木虱在我国有很广阔的适生范围,中、高度适生区所占的面积大。其中高度适生范围有云南、广西、广东、海南、台湾、福建、江西、湖南、贵州、重庆、湖北、安徽、浙江、上海、江苏、河南、山东以及四川东南部、甘肃南部、陕西南部、山西南部、河北南部和东部、辽宁南部等地区,其入侵风险R值达到2.37,属高度危险等级。建议将马铃薯木虱列入我国禁止进境的植物检疫有害生物名录,口岸监管部门应严格检疫。

Predication of potential geographical distribution of Bactericera cockerelli in China and its invasion risk assessment

Potato psyllid is an important pest native to North America.In recent years,studies have shown that it is a vector insect of the devastating potato disease—potato zebra chip disease(Candidatus Liberibacter solancearum,abbreviation:Lso),so it has attracted more attention from more countries and regions.Up to date,this pest and the disease spread by it have not yet distributed in China and both of them are pests with important quarantine significance.In 2017,Lso was intercepted from the imported goods for the first time at Guangdong and Shanghai ports of China.At present,potato psyllid has not been intercepted at China ports,but in view of the significant harm of potato psyllid and Lso,it is necessary to clarify the potential geographical distribution and invasion risk of the psyllid.In this paper,the biological dynamic simulation model and the geographic information system were adopted to analyze the suitable range and degree of potato psyllid in China.At the same time,the invasion risk of potato psyllid to China was determined and quantitatively evaluated to provide support for the pest quarantine and making decisions.The results show that the potato psyllid has a wide potential distribution in China,and the area of medium and high suitable level include Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Hainan,Taiwan,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Hubei,Anhui,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Henan,Shandong and southeast of Sichuan,southern Gansu,southern Shaanxi,southern Shanxi,south and east Hebei,southern Liaoning and other regions.The invasion risk value(R)is 2.37,which is high dangerous level.It is suggested that the potato psyllid should be included in the list of plant quarantine pests of China.The quarantine and monitor measures to prevent the introduction and spread of potato psyllid should be enhanced.