中国城乡基本养老保险非均衡发展分析——基于2013年31省数据实证分析

从3个维度选取15个反映2013年城乡基本养老保险制度财务可持续和地区经济发展水平的指标，利用主成分分析法对2013年我国各省市城乡养老保险发展状况进行研究。结果表明，东部省份的地区GDP和城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性表现较好，西部省份在城乡居民养老保障水平和城乡居民社会养老保险财务可持续上表现良好。西部与中东部省份的差距在缩小，西部省份内部差距明显。研究发现，地区经济发展水平、地区人口结构老化和财政支持力度是影响制度财务可持续的直接原因，而地区发展失衡的根本原因在于统筹层次过低，因此，解决地区非均衡发展的牛鼻子在于打破利益藩篱，尽快提高统筹层次。

Analysis of Provincial Unbalanced Development Between Urban and Rural Old Age Insurance: Based on Data of 31 Provinces in 2013

This article selects fifteen indicators which impact the development level and financial situation of urban and rural old age insurance, and then adopts the method of principal component analysis to measure the financial situation of China''s old age insurance in all provinces and cities. It is concluded that the regional development and financial situation of urban old age insurance in eastern provinces is good, while the development level of rural old age insurance is good in the western provinces. The gap between the western and eastern regions is narrowing. The difference within the western provinces is obvious. It can be concluded that economic development level system dependent ratio and financial ability have direct influence on financial states, and the principal solution is to improve the pooling level.