基于VECM模型的信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动分析

采用1997~2013年家庭债务、贷款价值比与GDP增长率等变量数据，在借鉴Kim的模型基础上，构建VECM模型，检验了信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动之间的关系。结果表明：短期内宽松的借贷约束促进了家庭债务的增加，从而推动经济增长，但从长期来看，宽松的借贷约束会导致家庭债务过高，阻碍长期经济增长；与居民消费率、家庭债务等变量相比，贷款价值比、利率对宏观经济波动的影响较大。因此，政府决策部门应制定合理的消费金融政策，居民应通过优化家庭资产组合，以实现家庭债务的可持续性增长，从而促进经济增长。

Analysis of Credit Constraints, Household Debt and Macro Economic Fluctuations in China: Based on VECM Model

Using the data of household debt, loan to value ratio and GDP growth variables in 1997-2013, this article examines the relationship of the credit constraints, household debt and macro economic fluctuations in China through VECM model. Results show that in the short term loose borrowing constraint promotes the growth of household debt and economy. In the long term, loose borrowing constraint leads too much household debt and hinders the long-term economic growth; Loan to value ratio and interest rates have more influence on the macroeconomic fluctuation than ratio of consumption, household debt and other variables. Based on the empirical results, the government should formulate reasonable consumer finance policy, residents should optimize family assets combination, so as to realize the reasonable growth of household debt and achieve the effect of promoting economic growth.