基于林业自然灾害的农户森林保险需求实证分析——以福建、江西、湖南、陕西4省为例

森林保险具有分担农户林业经营风险、扩大林业融资规模的显著作用。文中利用对江西、湖南、陕西和福建4省农户的647份调研数据，对农户参与森林保险的需求进行实证分析，利用Logistic模型对包括林业自然灾害在内的影响农户参与森林保险的各项因素进行回归分析。结果表明，林业自然灾害、受教育程度、健康状况、家庭外出打工人数、家庭人口规模、林地面积、林业收入占比、参加合作组织情况对森林保险需求的影响在不同省份显著不同，其中林业自然灾害对农户的森林保险需求呈显著影响的省份为福建和湖南。

An Empirical Analysis on Farmers' Demand for Forest Insurance Based on Forest Disasters: A Case Study of Fujian,Jiangxi, Hunan and Shaanxi Provinces

Forest insurance plays an evident role in dispersing the management risks of forest farmers and expanding forest financing scale. The study made an empirical analysis of farmers' demand for forest insurance by using the 647 investigation data in Jiangxi, Hunan, Shaanxi and Fujian provinces and by adopting the Logistic model to do the regression analysis of the factors (including natural disasters) leading farmers to buy forest insurance. The result of regression indicated that: the variables included in the model, i.e., forest disasters, educational background, physical status, the number of migrant workers, the number of family members, forest land area, the proportion of forest income in household income, and the participation in forestry cooperatives, had significantly different impacts on the demand for forest insurance in different provinces, while Fujian and Hunan were the two provinces where forest disasters had significant influences on households' demand for forest insurance.