快速城镇化地区景观生态风险变化评估——以上海市青浦区为例

[目的]研究区域生态风险的时空变化规律,为区域生态规划和生态建设提供技术支持。[方法]基于景观格局指数构建区域综合生态风险评价模型,并利用空间自相关分析方法,开展快速城镇化地区生态系统变化及其生态风险时空分异研究。[结果]2000—2013年上海市青浦区城镇和林地大面积增加,农田大面积减少,湿地保持稳定;研究区生态风险空间分布差异明显,青浦东部地区的生态风险高于西部地区,且东部风险扩张速度高于西部,城市化对生态风险的影响显著。[结论]区域生态风险具有显著的空间集聚特征,其生态风险值呈现显著的空间正相关关系。这些变化与生态系统变化及人类活动之间关系密切。

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Its Spatiotemporal Variation in Rapid Urbanization Areas-A Case Study at Qingpu District, Shanghai City

[Objective] The aim of this study is to reveal the spatial and temporal variation of regional ecological risk in rapid urbanization areas(Qingpu District of Shanghai City), in order to provide technical support for regional ecological planning and construction.[Methods] With the employment of GIS technology, the regional integrated ecological risk assessment model was constructed based on landscape pattern index. Spatial distribution of ecological risk in the study area was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation.[Results] The land use in the study area changed greatly from 2000 to 2013. The area of forest and urban increased gradually while the area of farmland decreased, wetland remained stable. The spatial variation of ecological risk in the study area was significant. The ecological risk of the area in the eastern was higher than that of the area located in the west, and the expansion speed of ecological risk in the east was higher than that in the west. Urbanization had a significantly impact on ecological risk.[Conclusion] Regional ecological risk has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and its ecological risk value represents a significant positive correlation. These changes are closely related to ecosystem change and human activities.