黑龙江省大豆生产周期波动分析

利用加法模型将黑龙江省大豆生产增长的波动因素和长期趋势因素分离,确定大豆生产的波动指数,并根据波动指数的特点对大豆产量波动成因进行分析.根据分析结果划分了黑龙江省大豆生产增长的周期,分析了各个周期的特点,对黑龙江省大豆产量的趋势进行了定性预测,结果与实际相吻合.

The Analysis of Soybean Production Cycle Fluctuation of Heilongjiang Province

The main work of this article is dividing the fluctuation factors and the long-range trend factors of the soybean production of Heilongjiang province in these years since reform and open by the addition model,then ascertaining the soybean production fluctuation index of Heilongjiang province,and making analysis with the factors of soybean output fluctuation based on the characters of the fluctuation index.According to the analysis result,this paper has divided the cycle of Heilongjiang Province soybean production since reform and open,has analyzed each cyclical characteristic,and has carried on the qualitative forecast for the Heilongjiang Province soybean output tendency,the result shows it fits actual well.