京津冀地区生态安全格局构建与预警点识别

在京津冀协同发展和生态文明建设的背景下，构建生态安全格局并预警国土空间生态薄弱区对区域解决生态安全问题和制定国土空间规划具有十分重要的意义。研究通过InVEST模型、MCR模型、电路理论等构建京津冀地区生态安全格局，并以此为约束，利用PLUS模型模拟该地区2030年的土地利用空间格局，分析土地利用变化情况，以建设用地扩张对生态空间的胁迫区域作为生态保护预警点。结果表明，京津冀地区有46个生态源地，关键生态廊道和潜在生态廊道共136条。其中，生态源地基本位于生态环境优良的燕山、太行山山脉，生态廊道依托源地呈交错分布，冀中南平原地区无生态源地和生态廊道。2030年京津冀地区建设用地面积增加明显，向四周呈环状扩张，不断迫近生态空间，威胁到生态源地和生态廊道的健康发展，应做出预警。

Study construction of ecological security pattern in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and identification of early warning points

In the context of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of ecological civilization, it was of great significance to construct an ecological security pattern and forewarn weak areas of national land space ecology to solve ecological security problems and formulate national land space planning. The research used the InVEST model, MCR model, circuit theory, etc. to construct the ecological security pattern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on this, the PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in the region in 2030, analyzed the land use change, and took the stress area of construction land expansion on the ecological space as the early warning point of ecological protection. The results showed that there were 46 ecological sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and a total of 136 key ecological corridors and potential ecological corridors. Among them, the ecological sources were basically located in the Yanshan Mountains and Taihang Mountains with excellent ecological environment. Ecological sources were mainly distributed in the Yanshan and Taihang mountains with excellent ecological background conditions. Corridors rely on source areas in a staggered distribution, and there were no ecological sources and ecological corridors in the central and southern Hebei Plain; In 2030, the area of construction land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would increase significantly, expand in a circular manner, constantly approaching ecological space and threatening ecological sources. For the healthy development of land and ecological corridors, early warning should be given.