基于耦合FLUS-InVEST模型的广州市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

[目的]探讨城市建设用地扩张下土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,揭示碳储量时空演变和未来空间分布趋势,为城市规划和生态脆弱区实施精准保护提供科学参考.[方法]本文通过耦合FLUS-InVEST模型,基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地预测,反演19902018年广州市土地和碳储量时空变化特征,分析建设用地扩张与碳储量分布规律,并...

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Stocks in Guangzhou City by Coupling FLUS-InVEST Models

[Objective] The impact of land use change on carbon stocks under the expansion of urban construction land was explored, and the spatio-temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trend of carbon storage were revealed, in order to provide scientific basis for urban planning and the precise protection of ecologically fragile areas.[Methods] By coupling FLUS-InVEST models, this study simulated the spatial and temporal evolution of variation characteristics of land and carbon stocks in Guangzhou City from 1990 to 2018 based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction, so as to analyze the impact of construction land expansion on carbon stocks distribution and evaluate the potential carbon stocks in the future.[Results] The land use change in Guangzhou City was characterized by the rapid expansion of construction land, mainly occupying arable land and forestland. The carbon stocks decreased by 2.47×10⁶ t from 1990 to 2018, with the largest decline from 2000 to 2005. High density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the northern forest area, while low density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Pearl River. The transfer of gravity center of construction land and low density carbon stocks had a high consistency. It was predicted that carbon stocks would decline by 1.20×10⁶ t between 2018 and 2034.[Conclusion] The expansion of construction land in Guangzhou City has significant impact on carbon stocks, and there is a greater risk of loss of carbon stocks in areas of the northwest and east in the future.