主体功能区视角下长三角地区国土空间格局时空演变及其碳排放效应分析

基于主体功能区视角分析国土空间格局演变特征及其碳排放效应可为完善主体功能区制度和推动国土空间绿色低碳利用提供依据。该研究利用2000—2020年土地利用数据分析长三角地区主体功能区划实施前后国土空间格局时空演变规律,结合碳排放数据以及贡献率分析测度了国土空间转移导致的碳排放效应。结果表明：1)长三角地区城镇空间和生态空间持续增加、农业空间减少,主体功能区实施后国土空间变幅趋缓;2)各主体功能区内国土空间变化量的增减关系表现为负相关关系,空间上存在显著的异质性;3)研究期内长三角地区净碳排放量(以C计)减少了14 956.57 kg/(m²·a),空间异质性特征显著,且主体功能区规划实施后栅格尺度上由碳排放转为碳汇的数量增多;4)农业生产空间转为林地生态空间以及农业生活空间转为农业生产空间是导致净碳排放量减少的主要原因,而农业空间转为城镇空间则是导致各主体功能区碳排放量增加的原因,主体功能区规划实施后造成碳排放量变化的国土空间类型趋于多样化。主体功能区规划的实施有助于国土空间减碳增汇,未来应进一步完善主体功能区制度,因地制宜编制低碳导向型国土空间规划。

Spatiotemporal evolution of territorial spatial patterns and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of main functional zones

Main functional zone (MFZ) planning is one of the most important national strategies in economic development and ecological environment protection. It is very necessary to analyze the evolution characteristics of territorial space patterns and the carbon emission in the MFZ system. This study aims to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of territorial spatial patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region before and after the MFZ implementation using the land use data from 2000 to 2020. The spatial transfer of territorial space was then evaluated using carbon emission data and contribution rate analysis. The results show that: 1) Urban and ecological space continued to increase, whereas, the agricultural space decreased in the study area. The agricultural main production, the optimized and the key development zones were dominated by the transfer of agricultural production space, while the ecological function zone was dominated by the mutual conversion of forest ecological space and agricultural production space. The rate of change in the territorial space tended to slow down after the MFZ implementation. 2) Agricultural production space was the main type of transfer out, whereas, the transfer in was the agricultural living space, urban living space, and urban production space. There was a negative correlation between the increase and decrease in the number of spatial changes in the territory within each MFZ, indicating the significant spatial heterogeneity. 3) Net carbon emissions decreased (in C units) by 14956.57 kg/(m²·a) with a spatial distribution of high in the west and low in the east. Among them, the high-value areas were clustered and distributed in the key development zones and the agricultural main production zone. Regional agglomeration was enhanced by the net carbon emissions enhancement in the key development and ecological function zone. The reduction zone was distributed mainly in the main production areas of agricultural products. There was an increase in the number of carbon emissions that converted to carbon sinks on the grid scale after the MFZ implementation. 4) The reduced net carbon emissions were attributed to the conversion of agricultural production space into forest ecological space. There was a decrease in the carbon emissions in other main functional zones, due mainly to the conversion of agricultural living space to agricultural production space. Furthermore, the conversion of agricultural to urban space was attributed to the increase in carbon emissions in each subjective functional area. A diversified type of territorial space was attributed to the variations in the carbon emissions after the implementation of the MFZ planning. As such, the MFZ system should be further improved to reduce carbon but increase sinks in the territorial space. Territorial spatial planning should be compiled with the local conditions in low-carbon-oriented activities. Therefore, green and low carbon utilization can be realized with the goal of reducing carbon and increasing sinks in the territorial space.