辽宁省松毛虫发生面积气象预报方法研究

为了利用气象因子预测松毛虫的发生面积，基于辽宁省阜新县1983—2008年气象资料与松毛虫发生面积等资料进行相关分析，将筛选出的气象因子作为预报因子，通过多元回归法和人工神经网络法对松毛虫发生面积进行模拟和预测。结果表明，与松毛虫发生面积显著相关的5个气象因子包括：上一年12月平均最低温度、上一年11月平均相对湿度、上一年9月降水量、本年2月降水量和本年3月降水量；人工神经网络法的模拟和预测精度均优于多元回归法，多元回归法的预测精度58.2%，人工神经网络法的预测精度为83.6%；人工神经网络法更适用于辽宁地区松毛虫发生面积的预报。

The Study on Meteorological Forecast Methods of Dendrolimus Occurrence Area in Liaoning

In order to forecast the occurrence area of Dendrolimus by using meteorological factors, the author analyzed the relationships between meteorological factors and occurrence area of Dendrolimus with the data from 1983 to 2008 in Fuxin County, Liaoning. The occurrence area of Dendrolimus was simulated and predict on the selected meteorological factors as forecast factors, using multiple element regression and artificial neural network methods. The results showed that: 5 meteorological factors were significantly correlated with the occurrence area, including the mean minimum temperature of preceding December, the mean relative humidity of preceding November, the precipitation of preceding September, the precipitation of current February and current March. The simulation and prediction accuracy rate of the artificial neural network method was better than that of the multiple element regression method, the multiple element regression method reached over 58.2% while the artificial neural network method reached over 83.6%. The artificial neural network method was more appropriate for the occurrence area forecast of Dendrolimus in Liaoning.