杭州市抗咸二期取水工程氯度研究

潮汐河口的取水口氯度主要取决于上游下泄径流量的大小、口门潮汐强弱、下游氯度、沿江引水流量及江道地形等因素。采用概率统计方法引用条件概率概念来确定取水口的供水保证率，通过实测氯度资料分析和一维氯度数学模型研究对钱塘江河口取水段的水体氯度进行了预测分析，研究成果可为杭州市抗咸二期取水工程的选择提供决策依据，研究方法对其他强潮河口抗咸工程的研究有借鉴意义。

Study on the Chlorinity of the Second-Stage Salinity-Resisting and Water-Intake Project in Hangzhou City

The chlorinity in tidal estuary mainly depends on the factors such as upstream runoff discharge, tidal strength at the estuary, downstream chlorinity, water-diverting discharge and river topography. This paper uses a probability statistics method to determine the supply dependability of water supply at the intake. The water chlorinity at the water-intake in Qiantang River estuary has been analyzed and forecasted by means of chlorinity observations and one-dimensional mathematical model of chlorinity. The result can provide the decision-making support for the selection of the second-stage salinity-resisting and water-intake project in Hangzhou City. The method used has reference effect on salinity-resisting project of similar strong tidal estuaries.