数值模拟气候情景下未来30年内蒙古三种主要粮食作物的单产趋势预估

基于内蒙古10个盟（市）农区58个气象站1961-2010年降水和气温日资料,38个旗（县）1961-2008年小麦、1979-2008年玉米和马铃薯单产资料,用自然对数曲线模拟作物趋势产量,并从单产序列中剥离气象单产。多元线性回归分析表明,大部盟（市）3种主要粮食作物的气象单产与生长季降水量和气温变化存在显著相关关系（P〈0.05）。利用PRECIS区域气候模式在SRES（A1B、A2和B2）和国家气候中心CMIP5数值气候模式对未来30a（2011-2040）10个盟（市）3种作物生长季平均气温、积温和降水量的模拟结果,采用多元线性回归模型预测各盟（市）作物的气象单产。结果显示,大部盟（市）气象单产总体呈增长趋势,预计未来30a全区平均小麦气象单产将增加179.0kg/hm2,玉米和马铃薯的增幅分别为51.6和50.7kg/hm2。叠加趋势产量后,小麦预计约增产1221.4kg/hm2,玉米和马铃薯预计约增产2121.1和1008.0kg/hm2。研究结果可为应对未来气候变化、确定粮食生产发展战略提供参考依据。

Pre-estimating the Yields of Three Major Crops in Inner Mongolia under the Numerical Simulation Scenarios for the Future 30 Years

The datasets of the daily precipitation and temperature at 58 stations in the cultivating areas in Inner Mongolia for the past 50 years （1961 -2010） and the yield-per-unit records of 38 leagues （cities） for the past 48 years （1961 -2008 ） of wheat, 30 years （1979 -2008） of maize and potato were collected, investigated and analyzed for pre-estimating the variations of the three major crop yields for the future 30 years （2011 -2040）. In this research, the authors utilized natural logarithm function to present the crop trend yield, and then separated the meteorological yield from the observed yield series. Furthermore, results of the multiple linear regressions indicated that the growing-season precipitation and temperature made significant impacts on the three major crops in most leagues （cities） of Inner Mongolia. In addition, regional climate simulating outputs of the PRECIS under the SRES for A1 B, A2 and B2 emission scenarios, and the CMIP5 multi-model dataset were employed to simulate climate conditions for the future 30 years. The meteorological yield, simulated temperature and precipitation for all leagues （cities） were composed into the multiple linear regression models for pre-estimating the coming 30 years meteorological yield of the three crops. The regression results indicated that all meteorological yields perform an increasing trend, though in several years display decreased yield. The pre-estimated quantity of meteorological yield-per-unit for wheat, maize and potato would respectively increase about 179.0, 51.6 and 50. 7kg/ha during the future 30 years. The yield displayed an uptrend in all leagues （cities） after the natural logarithm trend yield to be added into the meteorological yield series, and the yield predicted would increase by 1221.4, 2121.1 Results of this study can be referenced as important scientific developing policy for future crop production. and 1008.0kg/ha for wheat, maize and potato wheat. information for facing future climate change and making