气候变化背景下羌塘国家自然保护区植被净初级生产力时空变化

基于Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型,利用西藏羌塘国家自然保护区附近5个气象站1971-2018年气温、降水数据和第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）多个全球模式历史和未来预估数据,分析保护区附近及保护区气温、降水、植被净初级生产力（NPP）的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）保护区附近年平均气温从西部到东部渐低,年降水量从西部到东部渐多。年平均气温（T）呈显著升高趋势,年降水量（R）和年蒸散量（E）均呈微弱增加趋势,伴随各站气温NPP（NPPt）呈显著升高趋势,降水NPP（NPPr）呈微弱增加趋势,大部分站点蒸散NPP（NPPe）和标准NPP（NPPb）均呈微弱增加趋势;（2）NPPt从西部到东部逐渐变小,NPPr从西部到东部逐渐变大,NPPe、NPPb从西部到东部先变大后变小。狮泉河、改则站植被NPP限制因子为降水,申扎、班戈站为蒸散,安多站为蒸散或气温;（3）21世纪不同年代NPPt、NPPr、NPPe和NPPb与20世纪所有年代相比均显著增大。保护区NPPt、NPPr、NPPe和NPPb在未来不同排放情景下相对于1960-1990年均明显增加。保护区在近48a和未来气候“暖湿化”趋势下,植被NPP均有所增加,东南部的寒冷湿润地区增加幅度较大,而西北部寒冷干旱地区增加幅度较小。未来气候有利于当地植被NPP提高,从而改善生态环境。

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Qiangtang National Nature Reserve under Climate Change

This paper is based on the meteorological observation data of the five meteorological stations(Shiquanhe,Gerze, Xianza,Bangoin and Amdo)near Qiangtang National Nature Reserve, the climate of Qiangtang National Nature Reserve from 1960 to 1990 and the estimated grid data in the future issued by IPCC5. The Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model, and tendency rate were used. The statistical analysis methods were used to study the spatiotemporal evolution of Net Primary Productivity in Qiangtang National Nature Reserve and its response to climate change. The results showed that: (1) the average annual temperature decreases from the west to the east, and the annual precipitation increases from the west to the east. The annual mean temperature(T) showed a significant increasing trend, while the annual precipitation(R) and annual evapotranspiration(E) showed a slight increasing trend. NPP of Temperature(NPPt) and NPP of precipitation(NPPr) showed a slight increasing trend at all stations, and NPP of evapotranspiration(NPPe) and standard NPP(NPPb) showed a slight increasing trend at most stations. (2) NPPt gradually decreased from the west to the east, NPPr gradually increased from the west to the east, NPPe and NPPb first increased and then decreased from the west to the east. The limiting factor of NPP was precipitation in Shiquanhe station and Gerze station, evapotranspiration in Xianza station and Bangoin station, and evapotranspiration or air temperature in Amdo station. (3) The NPPt, NPPr, NPPe and NPPb in different periods of the 21st century were significantly higher than those in all periods of the 20th century. The NPPt, NPPr, NPPe and NPPb were significantly increased in the future under different emission scenarios compared with those from 1960 to 1990. Under the trend of warming and wetness in the past 48 years and in the future, the NPP of vegetation increased, and the increase was larger in the cold and humid area in the southeast, but less in the cold and arid area in the northwest. The future climate is conducive to the improvement of local vegetation NPP and the improvement of local ecological environment. Assessing the possible impact of future climate change on the ecological environment of Qiangtang Plateau. The results not only provide a basic method for studying the Net Primary Productivity of vegetation in no man's land at regional scale, but also have important reference value for estimating ecological security research and ecological function planning.