桂林地区冰雹天气分析及预报研究

目的]研究桂林地区冰雹天气及其预报方法。方法]针对桂林地区的冰雹发生情况,结合桂林新一代多普勒天气雷达的观测资料,总结分析影响桂林地区冰雹的天气形势和雷达回波特征,探索冰雹天气的短时临近预报方法。结果]桂林地区每年都会出现1～2次冰雹,冰雹发生受地形影响明显,地理分布极不均匀;时间分布比较集中,主要发生在春季,且多发生在下午到傍晚时分。新一代多普勒天气雷达探测冰雹十分有效,桂林地区冰雹的回波单体强度≥50 dBz,回波顶高≥10 km,垂直液态水含量≥40 kg/m2,常配合有中气旋,冰雹很强的时候,还会出现三体散射特征。冰雹的预报以短时临近预报为主。结论]该研究为冰雹的预报、人工消雹和减灾防灾工作提供参考。

Study on Hail Weather Analysis and Forecast in Guilin Locality

Objective] The hail weather and forecast storm in Guilin were studied.Method] In allusion to the occurrence of hailstorm in Guilin and considering the observation data of a new generation of Doppler weather radar in Guilin,the weather situation and radar echo characteristics in Guilin was summarized so as to explore the short time forecast method.Result] There was one or two icy storms every year in Guilin.The occurrence of icy storm was distinctly influenced by terrain.A new generation of Doppler weathe...