中国城乡协调发展的时空差异及影响因素

为了解中国城乡协调发展的时空状态及其成因，基于2006—2020年省域数据，利用协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数及其分解、Kernel密度估计方法和地理探测器考察了中国城乡协调发展的时空差异及影响因素。结果表明，中国省域城乡发展协调度持续增长且内部总体差异呈缩小趋势；东部、中部、西部和东北区域间差异构成全域内部差异最主要来源，区域间差异和区域内差异随时间推移均具有缩小趋势；各地区城乡发展协调度的离散程度均趋于下降但存在不同分化态势；城乡发展协调度与城市化进程、产业结构升级、市场化程度、交通基础设施、科技创新能力和环境规制强度等因素相关，因素间交互作用的影响力大于单个因素的影响力并存在时变特征。推动城乡协调发展需要健全有利于城乡要素合理配置的体制机制，因地因业制宜优化区域城乡协调发展的动力系统，构建城乡发展共同体。

Spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of urban-rural coordination development in China

In order to understand the spatiotemporal status and causes of urban-rural coordination development in China, the study uses coordination model, Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition, Kernel density estimation method and geographical detector to investigate the spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of urban-rural coordination development in China based on the provincial data from 2006 to 2020. The results show that: The degree of urban-rural coordination development in China''s provinces continues to grow, and the overall internal difference shows a narrowing trend. Inter-regional differences constitute the main source of differences. Inter-regional differences and intra-regional differences tend to shrink over time. The dispersion degree of urban-rural coordinated development in each region tends to decline, but there are different differentiation trends. The degree of urban-rural coordination development is related to urbanization level, industrial structure upgrading, marketization degree, transportation infrastructure, scientific and technological innovation ability and environmental regulation. The influence of interaction between factors is greater than that of single factor and there are time-varying characteristics. To promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, it is necessary to improve the system and mechanism conducive to the rational allocation of urban and rural elements, optimize the driving system of regional coordinated urban and rural development according to local and industrial conditions, and build an urban-rural development community.