气候变化对河南省夏玉米单产的影响分析

根据河南省代表站点夏玉米历史气候资料、单产资料及生育期观测资料,分析夏玉米不同生长时期气候要素及相对气候产量的变化规律,通过划分不同的基准时段,分析气候变化对河南省夏玉米单产的影响率。结果表明,代表站点夏玉米营养生长期及全生育期平均气温呈三次多项式变化,不同生长时期日照时数显著递减,降水量波动较大。1961~1981年夏玉米相对气候产量较稳定,并与营养生长期气温呈显著负相关;1988年以后相对气候产量年际间变异明显增大,并与生殖生长期的降水呈显著负相关。与1961~1981年相比,90年代以来气候变化对河南省夏玉米单产的影响率为-2.1%~-9.3%;与1991~2000年相比,21世纪以来的气候条件对夏玉米产量形成有利,影响率为4.7%。

Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Summer Maize in Henan Province

The historical climate data, unit yield data as well as observed crop developmental phases informa- tion were used, then the variation trend of climatic elements for different growth period and relative climatic yield were researched. By method of different basic periods dividing, the influence rate of climate change on unit yield of summer maize in Henan province was computed. The results indicated that, for representative stations, the average air temperature in the vegetative growth period and the whole growth stage varied as cubic polynomial, the sunshine hours declined significantly for both the vegetative and reproductive growth phase, while the precipitation fluctuated severely. Relative climatic yield of summer maize varied in stability between the years of 1961 and 1981, and there was a notable negative correlation between relative climatic yield and average air temperature for the vegetative growth phase. After 1988, interannual variability of relative climatic yield increased obviously, and showed a notable negative correlation with precipitation of the reproductive growth phase. Compared with the yields of 1961-1981, since the 1990s, the influence rate of climate change on unit yield of summer maize was between -2.1% and -9.3%, and compared with the yields in 1991-2000, since the 21 century, the climatic conditions had advantage impact on yield formation, and the influence rate was 4.7%.