木材生长轮材性变异规律时间序列模型

采用时间序列分析理论。分析了人工林长白落叶松木材生长轮材性变异规律。对木材的化密度、晚材度和生长轮宽度进行变异规律的拟合。并对建模方法，模型参数选择以及检验进行讨论。结果表明，模型的拟合良度较好，不但能拟合出木材材性总体变化趋势，而且能拟合出细微变化周期性波动。

Time-Series Model of Wood Properties Variation Pattern for Growth Rings

According to the theory and method of time-series analysis, the growth rings ARIMA model of wood properties variation pattern for Larix olgensis H. plantation was studied, the model recognition and parameter estimation was discussed, the ARIMA model of wood growth ring density, growth ring width and late wood percentage was obtained. The result indicated that the goodness of simulation was better by comparing with the actual test data variation pattern,it can simulate not only generalchangement tendency of wood properties, but also periodicity fluctuation of slight changement.